Look what they consume and tell you where to earn money
El consumo doméstico en Estados Unidos supone casi el 70% de su economía. Esta magnitud se refiere al gasto total de los hogares en su día a día, incluyendo tanto bienes como servicios. La suma agregada de lo que consumen los ciudadanos, crea la demanda que hace que unas empresas u otras sean las elegidas por aquellos y, finalmente, sean capaces de generar beneficios y crear empleo. Cerca de un 66% de ese gasto se realiza en ciertos servicios como son la vivienda y todo lo relacionado con la salud. Algo menos del 25% se dedica a bienes no duraderos, como pueden ser los alimentos o la ropa, y el resto, a los duraderos como serían vehículos o mobiliario. En el caso español, el consumo de hogares tiene un peso en el PIB de algo más del 55%.
Knowing, understanding and being able to assess what the projection of that magnitude is, it is obvious in order to propose any type of investment strategy.Before an increase or decrease, analyze the sectors and concrete players of each of them, will allow the flows to be directed based on the trends that are observed in the background.The retail sector, for example, is experiencing very significant changes of high implications.Global sales grow, in the United States, at a lower pace than the average of the last decade, less people go out to buy at Black Friday while, more and more are those who expect the advanced sales.
The narrative has been blaming, among others, millennials and social networks of consumption habits.In many cases, they have even labeled the cause of the failure of several businesses and companies.However, nothing so far from reality because what is truly happening, is that consumption has evolved as consumer tastes and preferences have done.Do not realize this deep change has been charged, and it is still charging, victims of the business side and investor.
Students in Mr. Simonson's Social Studies Classses at @bayyshoremslrnrs Learned How to Analyze Historical Cartans.T ... https://t.co/slSyarpslx
— Bay Shore Schools Fri Apr 05 16:17:05 +0000 2019
Por continuar con el anterior ejemplo, nada tienen que ver la evolución del negocio y su precio en bolsa, de aquellas compañías que han sabido orientar sus ventas a los consumidores que mayor gasto realizan. Si tomamos los casos de Walmart, Dollar o Costco y los comparamos contra Macy’s, JC Penney o incluso, Abercrombie & Fitch dentro del mismo sector, vemos claramente que los resultados de una inversión en un grupo u otro son totalmente distintos.
And it is not the fault of millennials and their desire to annoy, but there has been a change of customs that have not been discussed.Interestingly, it turns out that the expense of consumers who earn less than 50,000 USD in the United States, is growing at 6% rhythms (against the previous year), compared to a lower fact of those who have greater rent.The economy has created greater employment, the economic cycle is the longest in its history but, when spending, they do not go to Tiffany, but prefer to go to Wallmart or Target.
That there are less and less those who go to shopping centers (malls) is not something new, nor that the model of department stores is in decline is already a novelty, but if it is not heard or act based on what the consumer demands , It ends up closing establishments, initiating restructuring processes of complicated end and, in the stock market, their actions lose 70% in 5 years. On the other hand, they correctly placed them in the trend cycle earn 100% in that period. The amount of sales in department stores in 1999, was about 230,000 million dollars. 2 years ago, they did not reach 156,000 million. It is expected that more than 1000 of these centers will be closed in 2023 and the fall of the sector category will be 66%. Although millennials (and other groups) continue to increase their online purchases, more than half manifest their preference for physical trade. However, they now look for more than before, attractive prices and where fashion, for example, is very quickly updated and renewed. Companies such as TJ Maxx or Marshalls have increased their sales between 2006 and 2015 by 94%.
The same goes for other sectors. In the case of the restoration the so -called "Dinnig Casual", those establishments placed among those that offer fast food and very refined food, are clear decrease in income. Applebees or the Olive Garden, see how their sales are reduced while, however, establishments such as Bread or Chiplotte (Fast Casual) experience experience opposite behavior. The actions of the latter have passed, this year, of $ 440 to the more than the current 827. In the case of millennials, they now feel better in this type of restaurants and, in case of wanting to spend more, they prefer to go to a more refined one. If we take the case of cereals, whose sales have dropped 17% in the last decade, we find similar circumstances. Currently breakfast is preferred with less sugar, more fiber and that are healthier. However, it turns out that 82% of millennials state that, as a snack, if it would consume them. The luxury sector have a difficult challenge too. The new generations have fewer articles, such as watches or sports cars, and prefer to spend their income on experiences and not have things in property. Even brand clothes can already be rented for the desired time.
Thus, if we are able to understand the evolution of consumption habits, we can intuit which companies are better positioned to offer their products to this changing demand.Selecting the specific sectors and value can mark, as we have seen, a big difference between winning or losing in the stock market.