The textile sector will lose up to 40% of its sales in Spain this year

El impacto del coronavirus equivale al que sufrió la industria entre 2006 y 2013, pero concentrado en un año. Entonces, cerraron el 18% de las tiendas.

The more than 61.000 points of sale that the textile sector has in Spain have already been closed for more than two weeks, after the royal decree established by the alarm state in the country, a situation that is leaving for the moment a huge trail of temporary regulation files ofEMPLOYMENT (ERTE) IN THE INDUSTRY.However, the impact facing the Spanish textile is dramatic and will not stick only to the weeks in which the premises will remain closed.

A report prepared by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates a sales fall in 2020 for the textile and luxury market in Spain between 34% and 39% compared to last year.The impact, on the worst scenario, would be equivalent to the loss of 7.000 million in income.

The coup would be similar to the business decrease that the industry experienced in the previous economic crisis, that is, from the maximum sales peak of 2006 (22.460 million euros) to the year 2013 (15.850 million), the last year in which falls were recorded, according to the data of the Boat Employers.

The difference is that the collapse was then absorbed in seven years and will now concentrate on one so its effect will be greater.Then, 38 were lost.227 jobs, 17% of the total sector, and closed 13.000 points of sale, 18% of the total.

Impact never seen

BCG's study takes into account real sales data today, estimates on how much the closure of stores will last and has the participation of 30 CEO or CFO of the sector.Among them, two of the five largest Spanish companies and half of the world top 10 for sales are represented.

"If we could think that the online business was going to compensate part of the decrease in sales due to the closure of stores, the reality indicates the opposite.Online channels have fallen more than 50% compared to last year's figures, which together with the closing of 100% of physical stores, shows decreases between 75% and 95% in the billing of companies according to theCountry, "says Joan Sol, director of BCG and expert in the retail sector.In Spain, the consultant calculates a 91% billing drop in the best scenario - terminate with the closure in early May - and 95% if the confinement extends at the end of that month.

But there the problem will not end.The forecast is that the billing continues to fall between 40% and 58% in the following period, which the company calls recovery or rebound, and that it will last until July or August, since "we estimate that people will continue to be reluctant toGo to stores even if they are already open ".Once spent summer, and until the end of the year, "the return to normal" will arrive, but even at this stage BCG expects declines between 15% and 20% in sales compared to the previous year.The data is devastating if one takes into account that in the worst year of the last crisis (2008) the sector fell 10%.

All over the world

BCG estimates that textile trade will lose between 25% and 35% of its business worldwide this year, which will mean a sales decrease between 450.000 and 600.000 million dollars.Its estimates are that China, the country where pandemic began, will be the country less affected by it, with an impact of between 24% and 30% on sales.In the US, the largest world textile market, calculates a decrease between 23% and 34%

Instead, the consultant places southern Europe as the most affected region, reaching 40% decreases."We hope that Spain and Italy have a broader closure than other countries due to their infection rhythm.In addition, they are more affected by the fall of tourism globally, a sector for which a batacazo is expected and has a strong weight in the sales of both markets, "says Sol.

And the situation could be even worse, since the stage drawn by BCG does not take into account a hardening of the outbreak in the next fall, when the cold returns, as some experts point out.