António Guterres: “Stop treating nature like a toilet. We are digging our graves."

The Secretary of the United Nations Organization (UN), António Guterres, has warned world leaders present at the opening ceremony of the Glasgow summit that humanity is "digging" its own grave due to the increasing rate of emissions of greenhouse gases in which the human being has been immersed since the Industrial Revolution. “Enough of treating nature like a toilet”, he has reproached. "Enough of burning, drilling and mining our way", he added in reference to fossil fuels, the main responsible for these emissions and the food of the world economy since that Industrial Revolution.

The Glasgow summit has unfolded its most political day this Monday, with speeches by the main world leaders. It was preceded by a shadow of pessimism and disappointment, after the countries that make up the G-20 (responsible for 80% of global emissions) limited themselves in Rome to reaffirming the global commitment against climate change agreed six years ago in Paris , without offering new details or showing greater ambition. The different speeches heard throughout the day have confirmed that there are long days of negotiation and diplomacy ahead if this summit is to have a successful outcome. Beyond India's specific announcement to set its carbon neutrality target at 2070 (20 years behind the US, UK or EU, and 10 years behind China), most interventions have been rhetorical. of urgency without new concrete commitments.

Guterres has urged the around 120 world leaders present at the Glasgow summit to review their plans to cut emissions continuously. “Not every five years. Every year". Because the efforts that are on the table now, despite the fact that they have been reviewed in many cases, fall short. The objective of the Paris Agreement is to ensure that the increase in temperature remains between 1.5 and 2 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. That is the safety cushion that science establishes to avoid the most disastrous warming. But the planet is already 1.1 degrees warmer than before the Industrial Revolution and the cut plans that the almost 200 signatory nations of the Paris Agreement have presented lead to an increase of about 2.7 degrees.

"Countries must review their national climate plans and policies," Guterres insisted. “Until it is assured to stay at 1.5 degrees, until fossil fuel subsidies end, until there is a price on carbon dioxide and until coal is phased out.”

"It's a minute to midnight," UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned summit participants. His country chairs COP26, the biggest diplomatic gamble of the post-Brexit era. In recent days, the British government has tried to accelerate the pressure so that the Glasgow meeting does not end up being a failure. "We must move from the phase of declarations and debate to real and concerted action around the world on coal, cars, finance and trees," said Johnson. A government like yours, so given to slogans, has found the perfect combination for this summit: Coal, Cars, Cash and Trees. That is to say, an acceleration in the definitive end of coal consumption; consistent advances towards electric vehicles; more funding for the energy transition effort of emerging nations; and more reforestation to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. "The promises that the world made six years ago in Paris are beginning to ring very hollow," Johnson warned from Rome on Sunday.

These are some of the specific commitments that the UN has been asking countries for years to deal with global warming. And from the Glasgow summit it is expected that promises to abandon coal or put an expiration date on combustion cars can come out. Also, as Guterres has recalled, it is necessary to finish developing the Paris Agreement. Specifically, that the application of article 6 be completed, which refers to carbon markets as a tool to fight against global warming.

long term goals

During this summit, it is also expected that the number of countries that commit to reaching net zero emissions by mid-century will increase. This means that they could only emit gases that can be captured by nature (forests and oceans) or by technologies that are now experimental. Achieving zero emissions by mid-century is precisely the path set by Paris to stay between 1.5 and 2 degrees. Just before the start of the summit, the US presented its plan to meet that goal in 2050. “Right now we are falling short. There is no more time to waste arguing among ourselves”, said the President of the United States, Joe Biden, in his speech, who has reminded the rest of the world that Washington is once again a fundamental actor in the fight against climate change, after the setback caused by the Administration of Donald Trump.

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But Biden has not announced any new commitment beyond the reductions by 2030 that he already put on the table by his administration at an international summit organized in April to symbolize the return of the US to the climate fight. As he did then, Biden this Monday in Glasgow has once again presented the fight against climate change as an opportunity to create thousands of jobs. "Not just in the US, but in every country," he added.

China and Russia, whose leaders have decided not to attend this summit, have also pledged to achieve emission neutrality, albeit by 2060. And Brazil, one of the most criticized countries in the climate fight at the moment, this Sunday too presented a brief in which he assures that he will reach emission neutrality in 2050. Precisely, Guterres recalled this Monday that “there is a credibility deficit and an excess of confusion about emission reductions and zero emission goals, with different meanings and different metrics”. Because many promise neutrality of emissions by 2050 or 2060 without drawing a clear path to reduce their greenhouse gases for this decade.

Although the Paris Agreement is fundamentally about the actions that must be taken by the States that adhere, many companies and subnational public organizations are also promising net zero emissions. As with countries, these announcements are unclear in many cases and the fear is that they are mere advertising strategies. Guterres has explained in his speech on Monday that he will establish "a group of experts to propose clear standards to measure and analyze the commitments of net zero emissions of non-state actors."

Mitigation of emissions is the central focus of these summits. But the other big leg of the discussion is climate financing whereby the developed countries, the main cause of global warming due to their historical emissions, must financially help the poorest states. The commitment was to reach 100,000 million dollars (86,000 million euros) of climate financing in 2020. But in 2019, according to OECD calculations, 79,600 had been mobilized. And a recent report led by Germany and Canada acknowledges that the goal of 100,000 million dollars will not be reached until 2023. In addition, many non-governmental organizations question the impact of these funds and criticize the fact that a large majority of the amount corresponds to loans and not non-refundable aid.

This unfulfilled promise means that some developing countries that emit more and more are reluctant to put on the table ambitious goals to reduce their gases, as is the case of India. Guterres has assured that "it is essential to restore trust and credibility" that the goal of 100,000 million is met.

India promises to reach net zero emissions by 2070

In 2019, four large blocks accumulated more than 50% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, according to estimates by analysts at the Rhodium Group. China was the main emitter, with 27% of the total, followed by the United States (11%), India (6.6%) and the European Union (6.4%). Of these four blocks, only India needed to update its emission reduction plans. And his prime minister Narendra Modi has announced it during his speech at the climate summit. Modi has promised that by 2030 it will increase its capacity to generate electricity with clean energy to 50% (the previous target was 40%). He has also assured that they will reduce their carbon intensity by 45% by 2030 (the previous goal was 35%).

Modi has recalled that his country has decided to increase its commitments despite the fact that developed nations have not fulfilled their promises of financial aid. Regarding long-term goals, Modi has announced that his country will achieve emission neutrality in 2070. The US and the European Union say they will do so in 2050 and China has set a goal of 2060. India's goal is less ambitious, but also part of a complicated situation in which a significant part of its population does not even have access to electricity. "We are 17% of the population, but we only emit 5% of all greenhouse gases," Modi recalled.

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